Exit Polls 2024: How Accurate Were They in Previous Elections?

Exit polls have long been a subject of scrutiny and anticipation during election seasons. As the country awaits the results of the 2024 exit polls, it is worthwhile to reflect on the accuracy of exit poll predictions in the past, particularly in the critical elections of 2019 and 2014.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls projected the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to secure around 306 seats, with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) expected to win 120 seats^[1]. However, the actual results painted a different picture as the NDA emerged victorious with 352 seats, led by a strong performance from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The UPA, on the other hand, fell short of expectations with 93 seats, of which the Congress secured 52 seats^[1].

Similarly, in the 2014 elections, exit polls predicted the NDA to win around 283 seats, underestimating the landslide victory that unfolded with the NDA securing 336 seats^[2]. The UPA, contrary to expectations, secured only 60 seats, with the Congress winning 44 seats^[2].

It is interesting to note that while exit polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiments, they are not always completely accurate in predicting the final outcome. The 2024 elections present a new dynamic, with the competition shifting from the traditional NDA-UPA paradigm to a contest between the NDA and the emerging opposition alliance, INDIA^[3].

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set ambitious targets for the NDA, aiming for a resounding victory with the slogan ‘400 paar,’ indicating a goal of over 370 seats for the BJP alone^[3]. This shift in the political landscape adds an element of unpredictability to the 2024 exit poll predictions.

It is worth mentioning that the Congress has chosen to refrain from participating in exit poll debates on television channels, aiming to minimize speculation and sensationalism in the media landscape^[3].

As the countdown to the 2024 exit poll results begins, the accuracy and reliability of these predictions remain crucial, shaping public discourse and setting the tone for the upcoming outcomes.